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A part of AMP’s Search Intelligence service is monitoring and analyzing changes in monthly keyword data such as estimated impressions and average monthly search volume to uncover insights about an audience or category. If you’re familiar with our Google Search Trends Insights series, you’ll know we’re already fans of using Google Trends to work out what’s weighing most heavily on the American mind. Today, we want to apply our Search Intelligence service to tomorrow’s election to see if we can predict which candidate is going to win in three critical midwestern swing states. To make these predictions, we used Google Keyword Planner’s Estimated Impressions metric to gauge the relative popularity of Trump and Biden branded merchandise. We used this US News article to decide which swing states to analyze and we have some interesting insights to share for three of them- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Our Thinking
In 2016, the small Chinese city of Yiwu accurately predicted the outcome of the American election by noting that the city’s many small goods factories were selling much more Trump merchandise versus Clinton merchandise. We are applying the same rationale, that demand for merchandise tracks popular support, to several swing counties located in swing states. By using Google Keyword Planner’s Estimated Impressions metric, we can speculate how popular each candidate’s merch has been in each county and thus how that county is likely to vote. While it’s true that not every voter orders a sign or hat online, we still believe the data is useful because voters who vocally support a candidate may be likely to influence their friends, family, and neighbors.

Can Search Behavior Be Predictive?

Search insights, like the ones we gathered from Google Trends and Keyword Planner, can be a good indicator of future events because it can be used to identify historic trends which are likely to continue. Businesses can use this data  to determine which types of products they should be producing and how they should be marketing those products. By analyzing search insights about a topic over time, you can discover the increased public demand for a certain product type or variety. This particular function of Search Intelligence is called search listening.

For example, we can conduct a search listening exercise on a topic like “multivitamin” and uncover the insight that “multivitamin” keywords modified by the words “iron free” are seeing an increase in popularity, or that “sugar free multivitamin” is seeing a decline.

Search Intelligence vs. Polling

Search Intelligence can deliver insights you aren’t likely to get from other methods such as focus groups or polling. This is because Search Intelligence data is self-selected. You’re analyzing a population’s Google searches instead of depending on a third party pollster to successfully make contact with a person and then successfully persuade them to answer a question honestly. Search Intelligence data comes from people who sought out the search engine and entered their burning questions into it. Search engines are judgment free environments which are accessible to a huge swath of the population, so the data we can glean from them should be valued as an important input when examining or predicting behavior.

Methodology

To determine the relative popularity of Trump and Biden in the swing counties, a list of 40 “merchandise” associated keywords was inputted to Keyword Planner and then their estimated monthly impressions for November 2020 were aggregated and divided between “Trump supporting keywords” and “Biden supporting keywords”. In total, there are 40 keywords divided into eight categories:

  1. Button
  2. Flag
  3. Hat
  4. Merchandise
  5. Shirt
  6. Sign
  7. Sticker
  8. Store

All variations of a candidate’s name and campaign are accounted for, so not only are we tracking estimated impressions for “Trump sign” and “Biden sign” but also variations such as “Joe Biden sign” and “Trump Pence sign”.

Predicted State Victors According to Merch Sold in Swing Counties
If estimated merchandise impressions were the sole metric which decided the outcome of the election in these swing counties, we would feel confident calling the following three states for either President Donald Trump or Former Vice President and presidential candidate Joe Biden.

Pennsylvania – Winner: Trump

pa-sorter

Our Search Intelligence analysis indicates that President Donald Trump is likely to win Pennsylvania. He appears to have maintained his 2016 support in the seven counties he won in the previous elections and appears to be ahead of Former Vice President and presidential candidate Biden in two more counties, including the critical swing county of Lackawanna. In Lackawanna county three of the top five merchandise searches belong to Trump.

lackawana

Trump also appears to be winning the Philadelphia suburb of Montgomery County. The query “Trump store” has nearly 1.6X the amount of estimated impressions as the highest Biden query, “Biden Harris sign”.

montgom

It is worth noting here that at the time this data was aggregated the Real Clear Politics average of polls was giving Biden a +3.6 advantage in the state and that the political futures market PredictIt had Biden as a clear favorite, with one share of “Yes Biden will win PA” selling for $0.63 whereas shares of “Yes Trump will win PA” were only selling for $0.39.

Michigan – Winner: Biden

unnamed (2)

President Donald Trump appears to be losing ground in Michigan. According to this Search Intelligence analysis Trump is behind Biden in three of the four counties he won last time and all other counties which went Clinton in 2016. Looking at the two swing counties Trump is losing in 2020, the advantage in merch impressions clearly belongs to Joe Biden.

unnamed (3)saginaw

Wisconsin – Winner: Trump

wisconsin

Trump merchandise is generating more impressions than Biden merchandise in four of the five Wisconsin swing counties. Trump is underperforming Biden in Kenosha county, a county he won in 2016 but to make up for this he is overperforming in Eau Claire and La Crosse counties. With Trump winning merchandise impressions in 70% of total counties and 80% of swing counties, the data shows that he is doing better in the state than either the RCP average of poll or PredictIt indicate.

At AMP Agency, we provide our clients with search insights as a data point to inform business decisions. Our passion for this leads us to explore search insights around major events such as elections as well because it’s another data point we can use to inform ourselves and understand the world around us. If you’re already practicing Social Listening or are gathering insights from polls or focus groups, Search Intelligence is another great tool to add to the mix. After all, no one lies to Google.

To learn more about Search Intelligence and our SEO services, contact us.

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This post is part of our ongoing blog series highlighting our CMS practice at AMPXD; learn more about how we select CMS solutions through our other stories. As a large worldwide enterprise software organization with multiple product teams, marketing teams, customer communities, and outreach programs; VMware knows the daily challenges of managing a robust blog ecosystem and its content.. With over 40 different corporate blogs, VMware tasked our CMS experts at AMPXD with creating and managing a centralized authoring environment. Before our engagement the VMware teams had disparate blog instances in multiple platforms which made both content and user administration difficult to coordinate and manage. The organic growth of the various blog platforms also created the situation where they lacked brand consistency with various blogs’ look-and-feel resembling different brands. This lack of cohesion resulted in end users browsing between properties having jarring experiences as brand assets and user interface elements were unique to each blog. The AMPXD team in coordination with VMware stakeholders audited their internal workflows and business needs and identified WordPress Multisite as the ideal platform to enable blog authoring for the entire organization. The extensibility and control features of creating a WordPress Multisite network allowed for consistent user interfaces via brand controlled themes, a centralized user repository integrated with SSO, and one true dashboard to manage content and sites across the organization. AMPXD completed the migration of the existing VMware corporate blogs to the WordPress platform and, as part of the work, unified all of the disparate user interface elements of the blogs into one true corporate blog theme. The VMware blog network now has consistent styling elements whether you are browsing content from VMware Latin America or reading about the latest tips for utilizing vSphere The flexibility of the WordPress platform and the ability to create multisite blog networks has enabled VMware to create a robust blog ecosystem with over 40 blogs specialized to VMware products and disciplines. Utilizing content syndication mechanisms, VMware now has one blog space that is an aggregate of all corporate content across the blog network, giving customers one portal to discover and consume corporate content from across the whole ecosystem. By centering on the authoring workflow and optimizing the WordPress platform, the VMware team’s ability to easily manage authors, themes, system integrations and plugins has allowed the enterprise to focus on creating rich content and communities. Over the course of our ongoing series of posts around technology, we will share stories of uniquely different CMS solutions in practical implementations. If you have an upcoming CMS project or need to discuss content management strategies, the team at AMPXD would love to assist you with your needs. Reach out to us via our Contact Us form. You can also read about our entire suite of Experience Design and Website Development capabilities on our Services Page.

  • 3 min read
  • September 14, 2023

In our continuing series of examining Google Search Trends to gain insights into the top keywords queried in the USA, we present our findings for July 2023. Every day, we capture the top three keyword phrases in terms of search volume as reported by Google Trends (US Only). Each term has an estimated query volume attached to it, which we also record. The number scale tops out at 10,000,000+ with a lower limit of 200,000+ (sometimes 100,000+). After the conclusion of the month, we look at the phrases we collected along with their volumes to get an understanding of what drove queries for the month. Search Is Sizzling In July Actually, the total search volumes for the phrases we collected in July 2023 were lower compared to June so sizzling may be an exaggeration. We can’t say for certain why the reported search volumes were lower. There could have been a change in the way Google Trends was reporting query volume. The team likes to think that the people are out and about and not looking at their phones as much. Oh sure. Looking across the keywords, we had several celebrity deaths that made up the most searched topics of the month. The 4th of July holiday and the guy who seems undeniably connected to it made our report. We have an understanding at what movies, TV, and music were popular last month along with how much big jackpots of money captivated the search audience. Carlee Russell was someone people wanted to know more about and there was a lot of interest in the sport of soccer. Lastly, changes at Twitter and the launch of Threads had us excited to share more from the category of social media. Here’s what we have for you in this report! We Say Goodbye Sadly, the queries with the most volume from the past month were driven by celebrity deaths: Tony Bennett - 7/21/2023 - 2,000,000+ queries Sinead O'Connor - 7/26/2023 - 5,000,000+ queries On the last day of the month, two other entertainers passed away. Angus Cloud - 7/31/2023 - 5,000,000+ queries Paul Reubens - 7/31/2023 - 2,000,000+ queries We tend not to report on the query related to celebrity deaths but last month, two of these phrases were the only ones to be reported as having over 5 million queries for the day. The Fourth Fireworks, parades, and Joey Chestnut. These are the things that come to mind when we think about the Fourth of July holiday. You may not agree with the last item in the series, but the competitive eater has made our report over the past 3 years! Joey Chestnut - 7/2/2023 - 100,000+ queries Independence Day - 7/3/2023 - 200,000+ queries Fourth of July - 7/3/2023 - 2,000,000+ queries Joey Chestnut - 7/4/2023 - 500,000+ queries Take a look at the rising search popularity of his name in this Google Trends graph! Like it or not, Joey Chestnut is becoming a regular feature for the holiday. Summer Entertainment There were a few movie titles in our list from July 2023: Sound of Freedom - 7/3/2023 - 200,000+ queries Wonka - 7/11/2023 - 100,000+ queries Barbie movie - 7/20/2023 - 2,000,000+ queries The Sound of Freedom was released in theaters on July 4 and the Wonka film trailer dropped on the 11th. What seems to be the movie of the summer if not the year, Barbie hit the big screens on July 21st. Here are the queries that made our list that are related to TV shows. Emmy nominations 2023 - 7/12/2023 - 200,000+ queries The Summer I Turned Pretty - 7/13/2023 - 200,000+ queries Golden Bachelor - 7/17/2023 - 100,000+ queries Lastly, Travis Scott released an album on the 28th and people wanted to know more: Utopia Travis Scott - 7/27/2023 - 200,000+ queries Dreams of Free Money It seems like once or twice a year we get a large lottery jackpot that stirs up search interest. In July, we had two: Powerball - 7/8/2023 - 200,000+ queries Mega Millions - 7/8/2023 - 200,000+ queries Powerball - 7/11/2023 - 500,000+ queries Powerball - 7/15/2023 - 500,000+ queries Powerball numbers - 7/18/2023 - 500,000+ queries Powerball - 7/18/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries Powerball - 7/18/2023 - 2,000,000+ queries As you can see, the Powerball lottery game was very popular in July. Even though Mega Millions saw one entry in July when no one won the $427 million prize, The Powerball jackpot hit 1 billion dollars on the 18th and there was one winner for the drawing on the 20th. The Curious Case of Carlee Russell Carlee Russell’s name was reported on news outlets as someone who was kidnapped. Carlee Russell - 7/14/2023 - 500,000+ queries Carlee Russell found - 7/15/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries Carlee Russell - 7/19/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries The Alabama woman admitted later that she staged her own kidnapping and turned herself in and was charged with making false reports. Some Keywords Related To Politics Here are the phrases that made Google’s Daily Trends top 3 last month. Cocaine found in White House - 7/4/2023 - 100,000+ queries Student loan forgiveness - 7/14/2023 - 200,000+ queries Mitch McConnell - 7/26/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries Besides all the holiday festivities, people wanted to know about the cocaine found at the White House. We guess we’ll never know. On the 14th, the Biden Administration announced it would forgive the loans for 804,000 borrowers and on the 26th, Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell had an episode where he stopped talking while being interviewed by reporters and was escorted from the podium where he was speaking. Soccer Keywords We are going to call it soccer in this report, but the sport better known as football around the world drove many people to search last month. The USMNT was involved in the CONCACAF Gold Cup tournament. Here are some queries that were related to it that made our collection. USA vs Trinidad and Tobago - 7/2/2023 - 100,000+ queries Mexico vs Costa Rica - 7/6/2023 - 200,000+ queries USA vs Panama - 7/12/2023 - 200,000+ queries The USWNT played in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup and search interest in that team and their matches was strong and they also made the list. Women's World Cup - 7/19/2023 - 500,000+ queries USWNT - 7/20/2023 - 100,000+ queries U.S. Women's Soccer - 7/21/2023 - 200,000+ queries USA vs Netherlands - 7/26/2023 - 200,000+ queries Women's World Cup - 7/27/2023 - 200,000+ queries It figures that after a world famous player joins your club that suddenly the team name is getting queried every time you play. Inter Miami - 7/21/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries Inter Miami - 7/25/2023 - 500,000+ queries We’ll keep an eye on how many times this team makes our list for the rest of the year. Major League Baseball There is another major league playing games in the summer. MLB had their All-Star game in July but searchers mostly cared about the Home Run Derby. Home Run Derby 2023 - 7/9/2023 - 200,000+ queries Home Run Derby - 7/10/2023 - 500,000+ queries The trade deadline for the league actually occurred on the first of August but people still wanted to see the flurry of trades. MLB Trade Deadline - 7/31/2023 - 200,000+ queries Sorry Mets fans. Interest In Other Sports Too Queries related to big events in Tennis and Boxing made our list. Carlos Alcaraz - 7/14/2023 - 200,000+ queries Wimbledon - 7/16/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries The Wimbledon tournament was played in July 2023 and Carlos Alcaraz was the Men’s Singles winner. Spence vs Crawford - 7/28/2023 - 200,000+ queries Crawford vs Spence - 7/28/2023 - 200,000+ queries Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford - 7/29/2023 - 200,000+ queries The boxing match between Errol Spence Jr. and Terrence Crawford was fought on the 29th. As you can see, there were many ways to search for this bout. On the 29th, Crawford defeated Spence via TKO. Prime Day Amazon had their big deal day for Prime members as they typically do in July. Amazon Prime Day - 7/10/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries The search volume is almost back to pre-pandemic levels but not quite where it was in July 2019: ‘ Twitter, Threads, and X We finish up this edition of our search trends report with all the big happenings with social media platforms. Here’s a timeline of all the things searchers wanted to know more about with the changes at Twitter (X) and Meta: Rate limit exceeded Twitter - 7/1/2023 - 200,000+ queries Threads - 7/5/2023 - 1,000,000+ queries Twitter rebrand - 7/23/2023 - 200,000+ queries For some reason, there were limits put in place for the number of tweets users could view in a day, with different limits for verified and unverified accounts. Meta launched Threads on the 5th, much to the surprise of social media managers everywhere. We shall see how this new platform evolves as we have been viewing Twitter’s many changes over the course of 2023, which includes its rebrand to X. Update all of your social icons! Thanks for reading. If you liked this article, we utilize search trends data for all of our clients and we invite you to learn more about our SEO services.

When you’re first starting out on social media, you may be heeding advice to “just show up” on each platform. Great advice, nonetheless, but there’s an opportunity to diversify your content and give it a more native fit for each social media platform. Establishing distinct channel strategies ensures that you’re engaging most effectively with that channel’s audience. Consumers use different apps for different reasons.Your audience on Instagram is completely different from your audience on Twitter or TikTok. More importantly, media dimensions, character limits, and the overall strategy and objective vary depending on what social media platform you’re using. Content can be repurposed to ensure it communicates the brands' message across different platforms,however, it should always be tweaked to fit the social channel’s needs and to increase engagement. Let’s take a look at a few popular platforms and how to optimize your content on each one. Instagram Instagram is a staple when a brand is trying to showcase their visual DNA. Most brands only have about 3 seconds to capture consumers’ attention, so they’ll want to get a good understanding of what you’re about from just a photo. No matter the industry, people will be coming to your brand’s Instagram profile to see what the products or services offered look like and take a peek at the aesthetics offered inside as well. Instagram is a visual storytelling app. Feed posts allow you to show the bigger picture, while story posts are where your consumers can see every step along the journey. Through story interactions, reels, and direct messages, there’s also a wide-open opportunity to develop a community surrounding your brand. X (previously Twitter) A community manager’s dream (or nightmare), X (previously Twitter) allows you to speak directly to your audience—and they’re likely to respond! X gives your brand an avenue to speak on what speaks to them, interact with consumers, and easily repost relevant content, all great ways to lean into your brand's personality. Most brands allow the witty, not-so-serious side of themselves to live on X, leaning into gifs, memes, and trends that float across the text-first platform. You could use this platform to engage jokingly with your competitors, start conversations about the products or services you offer and have a little fun. TikTok TikTok is a great platform to push your brand creativity and have your content reach new audiences using unique trends. For your brand, TikTok is a creative playground. With trending sounds, filters, and templates, there are so many ways to present your brand in a way you may never have before. The platform’s motto, "Make TikToks not Ads," is a great guardrail for developing content. Consumers on TikTok learn about hidden gem products, new recipes, or product hacks. Optimal content on this app is very immersive, so you have an opportunity to find more information and insights about your consumers. LinkedIn LinkedIn is a great place to show off some thought leadership and anything interesting you’re doing in your industry. Think of LinkedIn as your brand’s professional landing, a place to network and mingle in a more formal setting. Brands could use this to showcase their values, employee spotlights, and business achievements. This could spark an interest in future customers, employees, or investors. So, before jumping into a new social media platform, (like Threads), develop a channel strategy. If the app is primarily visual, take some time to solidify pictures and videos that will add value to your page and engage your audience, like relevant infographics or shots of real people enjoying your brand. For more text-first apps, take advantage of the opportunity to let your words do the work by starting engaging conversations with your consumers or answering FAQ. Most importantly, get to know your consumers! Understand how your audience behaves and engages on each specific channel so you can tailor your content to fit right in.