The AMP Agency SEO team is dedicated to learning more about consumer behavior via search query data. Right after Labor Day, we put out a report that predicted what the top trends of Fall 2022. That season is over and now it is time to see how we did. Let’s examine some of our predictions from our report.
For our Fall 2022 report, we explored 8 consumer topic categories:
- Fashion & Beauty
- Home Decor
- Food & Drink
- Back to School
- Black Friday
Each category had 5 topics where we gathered historical data and tried to make predictions for the Fall season.
In this post, we are reviewing the search query volume for certain topics and comparing it to our predictions. We are providing charts updated with 3 months of data (September-November 2022) that was released by Google’s Keyword Planner after we published the report. Let’s see if our autumn predictions hit the mark.
Fashion & Beauty
Each season brings new weather-appropriate shoes that are in style. Loafers were a popular shoe in the 80s and now they have made a comeback as the “it” shoe this past Fall. Last Fall, we saw a pretty big spike in search volume compared to previous years but we predicted there was going to be more popularity around loafers this Fall and we were right.
In July, when we made our predictions, the search volume for the keyword “loafers” was 165,000 versus 135,000 in July 2021. Seeing that search volume was already higher compared to last year's numbers, we believed we would see a new all-time high this Fall, and we did! This Fall “loafers” hit a new all-time high in search volume reaching 246,000 searches from October to November, a 22% increase in search volume compared to last Fall.
Black French Tip Nails
With Fall comes “spooky season” which means some fun, Halloween nail designs begin to appear on everybody’s Pinterest nail inspiration boards. If you’re not one for intricate spooky nail designs, black french tip nails are a great way to tap into the Halloween spirit in a more subtle way. So did more people search for black french tip nails this Fall?
Last Fall, “black french tip nails” saw a decent increase in search volume with a peak in October 2021 at 49,500. By July 2022, we could see the search volume beginning to steadily increase to reach a new all-time high, with a 123% increase in search volume compared to July 2021. These numbers continued to climb with “black french tip nails” reaching a new peak in search volume in October 2022 at 60,500, surpassing last year's peak by 22%. In conclusion, more people searched for “black french tip nails” this Fall!
With each season comes cute, trendy home decor and this season in Fall, home decor brought the pumpkin pillow! Pumpkins are the true staple of Fall with pumpkin desserts, drinks, patches, decorations, and more. But did the pumpkin pillow reach a lot more homes this year?
Since 2018, we have seen a steady increase in peaks each Fall. When we made our predictions in July, we were already seeing a 125% increase in search volume compared to last year which made us pretty confident in saying that the pumpkin pillow will be a trendy decor item this Fall, and we were correct. The keyword “pumpkin pillow” reached a new, all-time high at 33,100, which is an increase of 49% compared to last year's peak and an increase of 123% compared to the peak in 2020. So it looks like maybe the pumpkin pillow really did reach a lot of new homes this year!
Last year, the Target ghost mug took over the internet, mainly by TikTok, when a user posted the cute mug online and people went rushing over to their local Target to get one, selling it out in stores across the country. Talks of the ghost mug began again over the summer and we believed this would contribute to a new all-time high in search volume this Fall.
And we nailed it! Search volume for the keyword “ghost mug” hit a new all-time high this Fall at 27,100 searches, surpassing last year's peak by 50%! During the summer of 2022, search volume for the “ghost mug” saw an 83% increase compared to the previous summer of 2020 so we knew the “ghost mug” was destined to reach a new large peak this Fall.
Salem, Massachusetts - The Witch City is a popular destination for tourists in the month of October. Everyone wants to visit the haunted houses, the museums, and see the history of the city that is synonymous with Halloween. After a couple years of stagnant growth in search volume & visitors (likely due to COVID), we predicted that crowds would be out in full force this Fall.
Our prediction came true as crowds visiting Salem were at record highs in October, and the search volume showed that as well. Searches for “salem ma” saw over double the amount of searches the previous year, hitting the 1,000,000 mark for searches in the month of October 2022.
Cider-based drinks have been gaining popularity over the past few years, so why not learn how it’s made and visit a Cider Mill? Searches for the keyword “cider mill” had already been steadily increasing over the past few years, which shows that consumers wanted different beverage tour experiences outside of visiting a winery or brewery. We dug into the volume more to see if this trend would continue in 2022.
We had already seen search interest start to increase at the end of the summer, matching the highs of Fall 2021. Our prediction that visiting a Cider Mill would be a popular Fall activity came true as we saw search volume increase 83% over the previous October.
Food & Drink
Is the populace tired of Pumpkin Spice and Pumpkin-flavored food and drink items yet? That was one question we wanted to answer. The data we had on-hand from Keyword Planner when we were researching topics for the Fall report was no, we are not sick of this flavor trend yet. The data was leading us to believe that 2022 was going to be a strong year for pumpkin spice.
Leading into the Fall months, “pumpkin spice latte” was queried more times in August 2022 than any other month in history. So much for getting tired of this trend. The Pumpkin flavor search interest was a little higher in 2022 vs 2021, with more search queries in September than in previous years.
When we chose McDonald’s as a topic for our Fall 2022 trends, we had a notion that tough economic times drives interest in fast food or inexpensive food options. What we saw in the Autumn months was a sustained surge in search queries for the brand name “McDonald’s” with a small drop in the month of November.
Besides examining Google’s Keyword Planner data, which you can see in the chart, we started to look at Google Trends data more closely. Keyword Planner data only goes back 4 years so we wanted to know if we were seeing all-time highs for search interest in the brand. Google Trends data goes back to 2004, so it provides almost 20 years of data. Take a look at the ascension of search interest in the brand as reported by Google Trends:
The peak of search volume for this Fast Food chain happened in October 2022. When you see a chart like this one, it’s easy to see that there is more driving search interest to McDonald’s than just economic factors (although it’s helping). Hats off to the McD’s brand managers’ efforts - it’s working.
Back to School
Bento Box Lunch Box
The popularity of these Japanese single-portion lunch boxes saw a gradual increase over time and did in fact peak this past Fall. With over 2.4 billion Tiktok views on the hashtag #bentobox in 2022, these useful lunch boxes even became a popular trend! Parents and adults of all ages packed lunches quickly and effortlessly using bento boxes.
Given the early Back to School preparation seen since July 2022, we already expected a high search volume for this query during the Fall. As we predicted, “bento box lunch box” saw an 11% increase in search volume compared to last Fall, reaching over 246,000 searches in September 2022.
Twin XL Bedding
As every Fall season approaches, people begin to search for dorm bed sheets and dimensions given the extra-long mattresses that require special bedding. College dorm shopping, along with Back to School preparation, began early this year. We began seeing an increase in search volume for Twin XL Bedding and Twin XL dimensions since June.
As with many topics related to in-person school activities, this type of bedding saw a drop in 2020 but is now seeing a resurgence. Fall 2022 did not surpass the peak search volume in August 2021, however, it saw 48% more interest than in 2020 and an overall longer and more sustained interest throughout the Fall months.
Squishmallows have been gaining huge popularity over the past few years - these stuffed animal pillow hybrids come in all shapes and sizes, offering limited edition seasonal varieties for avid Squishmallow collectors. For those looking to expand their “squish army” with adorably spooky characters, Halloween Squishmallows have started to be released each year and we have seen search results reflect a growing interest.
In Fall 2022, we saw nearly identical interest as 2021, topping out each year at 201,000 searches in September. So although the squish army may not be expanding, it is maintaining steady ranks - we think Squishmallows are here to stay for a while.
Peaky Blinders Costume
British drama series Peaky Blinders went on to its sixth, and final, season in 2022, capturing the interest of American viewers and providing plenty of Halloween costume inspiration from characters dressed as 1900s-era gangsters in sharp suits, newsboy caps, and waistcoats. The sixth season generated big buzz on social media, so we predicted the Peaky Blinders Costume would have even more interest than previous years.
As we predicted, Halloween 2022 did see an increase in searches for Peaky Blinders Costumes - 22% more than October 2021. While season six is the final installment of the series, a Peaky Blinders movie is slated to be released, leading us to believe we may continue seeing this turn of the century fashion in Halloweens ahead.
Over the past several years, we have seen significant interest in Thanksgiving cocktails, with inclusions of Fall flavors like cranberry, pumpkin, and apple cider. Although the peak of search interest was in 2020, we predicted 2022 would see a stronger “buzz” for these delectable drinks.
This Thanksgiving there was a 22% increase in queries for Thanksgiving cocktails over last year. Although 2022 didn’t surpass 2020 numbers, it rose to meet them at about 165,000 searches each year, showing us it wasn’t just a quarantine phenomenon. We can’t wait to see what traditional Thanksgiving dinner concoctions pop up next year (gravy cocktail anyone?).
Thanksgiving Charcuterie Board
As charcuterie boards in general become trendier, we have seen all manner of spins on them. This last Thanksgiving we predicted Thanksgiving themed boards would be more popular than ever, after search interest tripled in volume between 2020 and 2021.
Searches for Thanksgiving charcuterie boards reached an all-time high in 2022, with 20% more searches than in 2021 peaking at 110,000 searches. With a combination of people looking to add another element to the dinner table with a classic charcuterie board, and those looking for an expressly Thanksgiving themed spread, we hope Thanksgiving boards will maintain their popularity next year as well (we want to snack!).
Boots (Thursday Boots)
Black Friday marks the (unofficial) start of the winter season, and there’s no better time to buy that new pair of boots you’ve been eyeing. Searches for Boots saw a decrease in volume during the 2020 season, but have since seen increased volume into 2021. With more and more activities being open post-pandemic, we predicted that this trend would continue into the Black Friday season of 2022.
Search interest for Boots did see an increase based on October 2020 volume, however we didn’t see the interest reach the 2021 volume. Consumers were searching for individual boot brands such as Thursday Boots and Tecovas, as we saw both of those brands have increased search volume in October 2022.
In previous years, we have seen small spikes in search volume for “electric toothbrush” in the summer months. We’ve determined this is likely due to June being National Smile Month and Amazon Prime Day in July. We also saw search volume have a sharp increase in October & November of previous years - most notably in 2021. Based on these trends, we predicted that search interest for “electric toothbrush” would continue to increase in 2022.
Unfortunately, our prediction here did not come true. It seems that unlike previous years, consumers saw deals on Prime Day that were too good to pass up and by Black Friday they had already made their purchase. Maybe next year the Black Friday deals on Electric Toothbrushes will be worth the wait.
That concludes our look back at this seasonal trends report. We feel like we did pretty well. Some topics weren’t as popular as we expected them to be but most of them lived up to expectation. Secretly, we were hoping that the Pumpkin flavor thing was going to show some decrease, but the people have searched and the data doesn’t lie. We will examine our Top Trends For Winter 2022-2023 in a few months.