The AMP Agency SEO team is passionate about predicting consumer behavior with search query data as the source of our projections. At the start of December, we released our report that predicted what the top trends of Winter 2022-2023. Now that spring is here, we can look back at our predictions and see if search data we collected from the winter months backs up our claims.
For the Winter report, we explored 8 consumer topic categories:
- Food & Drink
In this article, we'll be assessing the search query volume for specific topics from our Winter Trends report and measuring it against our earlier projections. We have updated the charts with the latest data spanning three months (November to February 2023), which was made available by Google's Keyword Planner after the initial report was published. What do you think - were we able to see the future? Read through the category highlights below!
Ultra Mini Uggs
The popular boot brand of the early 2000s went out of style for a bit but now they are back and imploding in popularity. Last Winter we saw a slight interest in “ultra mini uggs” at a peak of a little over 100,000 but we predicted we would see an even larger increase in search volume this Winter and we were right.
In October, when we made our predictions, the search volume for the keyword “ultra mini uggs” was 8,100 and reached its peak in December of 2021 at 110,000. In October of 2022, search volume for the boot was already at 165,000 average monthly searches! We expected this number to grow, and it did, by 309% from December 2021 to its new peak of 450,000 searches in December 2022.
Yet another early 2000s fashion trend is coming back: flared pants. Gone are the days of skinny jeans and ankle-length leggings which are being replaced by flare jeans and flare leggings. Although we were seeing an increase in interest this Winter, was it enough to surpass last year's numbers? Are people really following this trend? It looks like they are!
Last Winter, the search volume for “flare leggings” had a decent peak at 135,000 from November to January of 2021. When we saw the search volume for the leggings was already at 201,000 in October 2022, we knew this Winter would surpass last Winter's numbers. Search volume hit a new all-time-high in search volume at 246,000 in November 2022. Search volume slightly decreased to 201,000 in December and January, which is still an increase of 49% compared to last Winter's all-time-high of 135,000.
Beauty Advent Calendar
Who says advent calendars can only be for chocolate? In comes the “beauty advent calendar”! These advent calendars are a great way to test out some new beauty products during the Winter season. In the past few years we’ve seen slight peaks each Winter but thanks to TikTok and search data, we knew this year's numbers would blow last year's numbers out of the park! Were we correct?
Yes, we were! Last year, the search volume for “beauty advent calendar” hit a peak of 110,000 in average monthly search volume. This year, search volume hit a new all-time high of 110,000, which is an increase of 172%. Search volume throughout the Winter season continued to surpass last year's numbers by more than double and sometimes even triple! Next year we can probably expect more brands to participate with their own “beauty advent calendars”.
Chestnut Brown Hair
Everyone is always looking to switch up their hair for the colder months. But what color is everyone going for this Winter? We predicted the hair color chestnut brown would be the “it” Winter hair color this season. Were we correct on that?
Kind of! Instead of seeing a new all-time high in search volume this year, we saw search volume matched last year's peak of 18,100. The trends pretty much stayed the same as last Winter, however, last March, search volume continued to stay at an average of 14,800 monthly searches, and this March search volume for “chestnut brown hair” climbed up to 18,100. Maybe we’ll see this trend reach a new all-time high next Winter instead.
Food & Drink
We had a feeling that this appetizer recipe would be a hit this past Winter season, and were we right! It slowly started gaining popularity on multiple social media platforms, and before we knew it, the phrase “air fryer brie recipes” had collected over 5.7M views on Tik Tok alone! People were looking for an easy and delicious appetizer to add to their holiday table spreads, and this recipe and its variations seem to have fit the bill perfectly.
But like most viral food trends, its popularity was short-lived. This query reached its biggest-ever peak in search volume during December 2022, with over 14% more searches than the previous year, yet by February of 2023, its search volume had already dropped over 50%. With that said, despite this trendy food’s cool down, airfryer brie is still holding onto high monthly search volumes compared to the same time last year.
During the early Winter months, dessert cocktails became all the rage as people sought a boozy and sweet way to round off their holiday dinners. However, with the arrival of spring and its warmer temperatures, the search volume for this trend has taken a steep dive. Let's face it, a heavy dessert cocktail may not be the coolest thing to sip on after the holidays have passed.
Back in October, we predicted that dessert cocktails would reach an all-time high in popularity, and we were certainly right! In late October, dessert cocktails peaked with a remarkable 24% surge in search volume, surpassing all previous records. That said, as the Winter season progressed, the search volume for these delectable cocktails returned to normal levels, remaining consistent with the previous Winter season.
The original Avatar movie was a cultural phenomenon, holding the top spot for domestic-grossing movies for over 9 years. At the time, it was praised for its cutting-edge visual effects that have become the norm these days. Fans have been waiting patiently for over 12 years for James Cameron’s second installment in the series to see if it can hold up to the standards of the first movie.
Our prediction came true, as Avatar: The Way of Water beat out all other releases in the Winter season bringing in $134,100,226 domestically in the opening weekend. The movie that was closest was Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania at $106,109,650, however even a Marvel blockbuster couldn’t beat out the highly anticipated Avatar sequel. Will Avatar 3, 4, and even 5 continue this trend, or will fans start to get Avatar fatigue?
Winter Markets offer a unique opportunity to celebrate the Winter season in a fun and festive way, while also supporting local & small businesses. Over the last 5 years, search volume for “winter markets” has consistently increased, which led us to our prediction that this trend would continue into the Winter of 2022/2023.
Our prediction came true, with the keyword “winter market” seeing a 50% increase in search volume YoY in December 2022, while also reaching a new high over the last 5 years. This trend is one that we think is here to stay. Do you think Winter markets will continue to be a popular activity next Winter?
Indoor Golf has been steadily rising in popularity over the last few years and for good reason. Golf is a seasonal sport, but with more and more indoor ranges opening up, golf enthusiasts can practice their skills year-round. And for the non-enthusiasts, indoor golf can be a fun social event with friends complete with food & drinks, music, and good times for all. We predicted that this trend would continue into the Winter of 2022/2023.
While we did not see search volume for “indoor golf” increase this year, it reached the same peak as 2022 and had a much higher peak than the previous all-time highs in 2019-2021, which shows that the overall trend is still increasing. We think this trend will be here to stay in the future, as something both competitive and casual golfers can enjoy.
Skijoring is a competitive Winter sport where a person on skis is pulled by a horse, dog, or snowmobile. This sport has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years across the US and Canada. While it has been gaining popularity recently, Skijoring in the United States dates back to 1915, even appearing as an Olympic sport in the 1928 Olympic games. We predicted that the search volume for “Skijoring” would continue to increase this Winter.
Our prediction about search volume did not come true, as we saw a decrease in searches for “skijoring” this Winter compared to last. However, the overall trend is still up as searches this year surpassed searches in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Some of this can be attributed to the weather, particularly on the east coast as it was a warmer-than-average Winter. Can Skijoring gain enough popularity over the next few years to once again become an Olympic sport?
Even if you aren’t familiar with the name, you’re probably familiar with bouclé’s fuzzy texture that is used for cozy clothing and to upholster furniture. Bouclé has been gaining popularity steadily since 2019, with interest peaking every winter as comfortable and insulating textiles become more desirable. We predicted bouclé would continue its upward trend into the 2022-2023 winter.
Our predictions were correct, with bouclé hitting an all time high in search volume in January of 2023, with a 22% increase in search volume over the previous January. While such an inviting and warm fabric might experience a dip in popularity over warmer seasons, it may be here to stay as an interior design and fashion staple.
Black Accent Wall
Starting from barely any search interest in 2019, black accent walls have been seeing a steady rise in search interest for home decor. While painting an entire room black is not generally a recommended style tip, utilizing just one wall with black paint has become a popular way to create a strong focal point in a room and give a contemporary feeling. As black accent walls seem to be searched more often in the winter months, we predicted this winter they would be more popular than ever.
While search interest did reach the same levels as last year, our prediction about black accent walls was not realized. Hitting the same peak as 2023, this trend may have reached its maximum. While it still may be a decor choice that stands the test of time, we don’t blame you for considering putting down the paintbrush!
Puerto Rican Resort
Resorts all over the world have seen a rise in search volume and bookings that closely matches when pandemic restrictions began to ease. Puerto Rico has been one of the hottest emerging destinations for resort vacations, with a 307% difference between February 2019 and February 2021. When February 2022 was even higher, we predicted Puerto Rico resorts would keep up the upwards trajectory again.
While Puerto Rican resorts did not surpass the peak of the year before, they hit the same number of searches as the year before. While resort vacations may not continue rising, they are likely here to stay as travel and vacationing becomes more important in a post-pandemic mindset.
Ski resorts have become a very trendy winter getaway option, eliminating a commute into the mountains in order to hit the slopes. These resorts have also become popular for remote workers. We have seen their popularity increase consistently for the past several years and predicted this winter the trend would continue up.
Ski resort searches reached an all time high over the winter, peaking at a 22% increase over the previous year in January. As skiing becomes a more popular sport and more people are able to utilize resorts as a location for both recreation and work, we think ski resort searches will only continue to rise in the future.
This past love season, couples got extra creative. Pinterest boards and instagram feeds were filled with Valentine's Day craft ideas, making it easy for people to surprise their loved ones with creative, hand-made cards, and gifts to express their love. The popularity of the query “Crafty Valentines” was undeniable, and our predictions of its popularity during the Winter months proved to be accurate.
While search volume did not reach the anticipated all-time high levels, it remained consistent with previous years reaching nearly 80,000 searches in the month of February alone. This past winter, it was definitely heartening to see that people continued to embrace the crafty spirit and opted for more personalized and thoughtful gifting options, rather than relying on store-bought gifts.
Pink Christmas Tree
Despite receiving a lot of attention on social media sites like Pinterest and TikTok, this unique and eye-catching holiday decoration didn't spark the kind of interest we were hoping for. Even though this unusual trend was all the rage online, it appears that when it came time to decorate their homes, many people chose the more conventional, and on theme green Christmas trees.
In spite of our expectations, search volume for the term "Pink Christmas Tree" dropped by 0.47% from December through January. This suggests that the popularity of this trend was fleeting and that it was unable to maintain interest for an extended period of time, showing that even the most talked-about and viral trends can quickly lose their appeal and gradually fade away.
Overall, we're pleased to see that our predictions were largely on target, with many topics seeing the expected increase in search volumes during the winter months of 2022-2023. However, there were a few surprises as well, highlighting the notion that past query volume doesn’t necessarily mean that the trend will continue. Most of the time, the data shows us what we can expect in future months and it is important to stay close to these trends.
We truly believe that this data set can help you prepare for the future. That’s why we prepared the Top Trends For Spring 2023. We will see if the warmer weather trends play out the way we thought they would in a few months.